A new study may bolster hopes for a carrier-supplier rebound.
DWDM, SONET, and Photonics: The Emerging All-Optical Network 2001–2006 from Insight Research says global fiber optic demand will eventually force carriers "back into the arms of their fiber optic equipment suppliers and drive the worldwide fiber optic equipment market from just under $30 billion this year to over $70 billion by 2006."
The market for DWDM optical systems will grow at a 28 percent compounded annual rate, based on 100-percent-per-year Internet growth and the fact that, "Optical equipment is the only solution that can, in the long term, cost-effectively meet the increased demand for bandwidth in long-haul and metropolitan networks," the study says.
The study notes the European and Asian markets will drive fiber optic growth for years, and "as for a North American bandwidth glut, if there is one, it's a transitory phenomenon," says Insight Research President Robert Rosenberg in a statement. "The real problem facing carriers is not an oversupply of capacity, but their inability to figure out a way to charge customers for anything other than voice traffic."
Finally, the survey forecasts demand for North American and global markets by region and networks and includes other forecasts.