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Study call: Statisticians slave away

Tue, 08/21/2001 - 8:00pm
Anne Kerven

Intent on a literal look at Labor Day, those diligent statisticians are back with another deluge of industry predictions.

• Second-quarter sales of broadband fixed wireless, point-to-multipoint client or terminal equipment jumped 10 percent to $70 million over first-quarter of this year. Base station sales, however, dropped slightly, says a Dell'Oro Group report.

North American MMDS wireless carriers who focus on areas with established base stations will see minimal infrastructure costs until 2002, when the next generation of non-line-of-sight products hits the market. Internationally, 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz base station shipments are strong, but sustaining that will become more difficult, the study says.

Dell'Oro says the report covers point-to-multipoint base stations and client/network termination devices, including market sizes, and vendor market shares in several areas of spectrum.

Market leaders, based on revenue, are Alvarion (BreezeCom + Floware), which grew 2 percent, quarter to quarter; Alcatel, which ranked second but had 16 percent growth; and Hybrid in third place with 8 percent growth.

• An ElectroniCast Corp. study says global consumption of optical fiber amplifiers will grow from $2.65 billion last year to more than $3.4 billion in 2005, thanks to the burgeoning DWDM market.

• Even as telecom giants drop out of the voice sector, new entrants are opting into the $230 billion industry with softswitch equipment for packet technologies, says Voice's Next Evolution from Forrester Research Inc. Moving voice from circuit-switched to packet-based networks will open a market and pose "enormous challenges for telecom incumbents and gear makers," it says.

"By marrying the visual interface and … applications of the Web with voice telephony, VoIP networks will provide a platform for developers who can, in turn, design the coveted killer app of the voice business, creating a cheap entree into voice for players like cable providers," Forrester says. But you knew that.

• Not to be outdone, Frost & Sullivan's World VoIP Equipment Forecast Update, Q1, 2001, says revenues from the industry will grow from $1.39 billion in 2000 to a whopping $14.03 billion by 2007. Traffic has seen "tremendous growth," it says, especially in long-distance, with Next Generation carriers — or "Nextgens" — strong drivers of the market, usually by expanding into low teledensity areas.

China and Southeast Asia will be "pockets of strength," it says, and may bypass legacy telephony completely. Growth overall will be driven partly by such technology as IP pones and softswitch applications. Opportunities also lie in traditional, DSL/broadband and wireless carriers, the study says.

• Bringing up the rear is Cahner's own In-Stat Group, a division of CED's owner. In-Stat says the number of Voice Over Packet IC ports shipped will grow 64.5 percent from 2000 to 2005. A need for equipment for the evolution from circuit-switched to packet-switched networks means a growing market for ICs with "specialized packet voice processing capabilities," it says.

In-Stat also notes that the transition to VoP will be gradual, given the technological immaturity and carriers previous investment in circuit-switched networks. Conversely, Voice over Broadband, including VoDSL, VoCable and VoWireless are embryonic and will mature rapidly in the next few years.

• And again, Dell'Oro's number crunchers turned out a report that notes second-quarter ultra-high-end router sales rose 16 percent over first quarter to $286 million. Driven by pent-up customer demand, especially for 10 Gbps line cards, the High End Router Report focuses on market size and share, port/unit shipments and average selling prices.

Market leaders in the OC-192 capable category are Cisco in first place with 366 percent growth, thanks to its first full quarter of production of its 12400 Series Internet Router. Juniper took second place, although its growth dropped 40 percent, and Avici ranked third with 36 percent growth.

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