Study call: a research roundup

Mon, 08/20/2001 - 8:00pm
Anne Kerven

Those zany statisticians and their attention-getting tactics — the week already has seen a surfeit of studies on the industry.

• Nearly 50 percent of U.S. households are interested in receiving VOD services, and nearly one-fourth indicated a "compelling" interest, says a Parks Associates study. Moreover, 56 percent of the 2,500 homes polled would prefer SVOD over pay-per-use.

The firm is hoping Bundled Services and Residential Gateways will alleviate any cable operator concerns over the billions the industry is banking on network upgrades.

"Video-on-demand will be the first of many new services that these network upgrades will enable, and it's reassuring to know that consumers find these services compelling," says Parks Senior Analyst Michael Greeson.

• Watch for the integrated optical components market to grow from $13.4 million in 2001 to $2.6 billion globally by 2005, says The Market for Integrated Optical Products: 2001–2005. The study, from Communications Industry Researchers Inc., says the niche's strongest demand is increasingly in access and metro products, with their low cost and small footprint, which integrated optical components can provide.

Likewise, the industry's abandonment of the popular theory of monolithic optical integrated circuits on a single chip allows adoption of hybrid optical circuits with single-function chips bonded in one package, CIR says.

Opportunity exists, CIR says, in integrated transmitters and transceivers, and their potential $1.6 billion value by 2005; in integrated passive DWDM products, accounting for $103 million in sale by 2005; and the $500 million-by-2005 novel products industry, such as one company's combination tunable optical add-drop multiplexer and integrated optical channel monitor. Revenue for IOPs won't really be that significant until 2003, the company says, and it urges early entry for the interested.

• Gartner Dataquest predicts 38.7 million broadband Internet subscribers in the Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) by 2005. The region claimed 6.1 million subscribers at the end of 2000, a number that will double to 11.4 million by the end of 2001.

Broadband access revenue will pace subscriber growth, reaching $5.8 billion in 2005 from $732 million at the end of last year. Services other than broadband Internet will not contribute in any great way; long-term, there will be a market for VoB and other services.

Less-developed countries are still slow in deployment; affordability and a lack of competing infrastructure will hold back the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand for a few more years, Gartner says.

• Unit sales of digital TV sets, mainly HDTV, jumped 230 percent in the first half of 2001 over the same period last year, says an NPD Intelect report. Unit sales of personal video recorders (using TiVo, ReplayTV and UltimateTV) rose 198.5 percent.

NPD tracked 43 consumer electronics categories in the first half of the year, and estimated an overall 5.7 percent growth in unit sales.


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