Try to look past that 36 percent dive in CMTS and other cable equipment sales this year, not to mention the 23 percent drop in this year's worldwide optical transport market.
Two Dell'Oro Group studies say both markets will turn around — CMTS in 2002 and optical transport in 2003.
"Access concentrator — cable modem equipment" sales should grow 85 percent, year-over-year, next year, with more than $1 billion in sales by 2005, according to the Routers, Access & Voice 5-year Forecast Report. Dell'Oro says headend devices and CMTS are included in that market.
"The access concentrator — cable modem market is currently undergoing a product transition from data-only DOCSIS 1.0 devices to next-generation, voice-and-data capable DOCSIS 1.1 devices," says analyst Paul Baranello in a statement, adding that cable service providers have stopped buying termination equipment until the 1.1-capable devices are available.
"We believe the prospect of offering packetized voice service will result in strong demand for this equipment in 2002," he says.
According to the Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report, The worldwide market will fall 23 percent in 2001 to $17.7 billion, following a 49 percent annual growth in 1999 and 2000.
Telecom service providers cut their spending, prompting a "long-lasting effect on the sales of optical transport equipment," says principal analyst Shin Umeda. "The number of large-scale optical network projects will be significantly lower over the next few years, so we don't expect overall market growth to return until 2003."
On that note, DWDM system sales will surpass Sonet/SDH multiplexers in 2004 and comprise 56 percent of the market in 2005. Meantime, the Sonet/SDH multiplexer market will decline steadily, the report says, especially in long-haul network applications, which will turn to other technologies, such as DWDM and optical switches.