From the Western Show:
The world according to John Chambers
Cisco CEO John Chambers sees a market where the broadband connection is merely the ante and the real game is in execution and services.
In a private session with trade journalists Thursday - away from the clamor of the Western Cable Show floor, Chambers emphasizes the winners in the volatile broadband Internet game will be those that get to market early and don't get caught behind the commoditization curve.
Such is the case for long-distance voice service and shortly, high-speed data as well, he says. And while cable networks may have the early market lead, they will only win the battle against telephony competitors if that commoditization process moves quickly.
"What will be interesting is the how long people need to have time to make the transition," he says. "I personally think that if it happens rapidly, the cable players have a much higher probability getting margin market share."
"Two to three years is the window," he adds. "If the cable company doesn't have the market share in two to three years they are going to have a real challenge from the ILECs. They have deeper pockets, they have more of the branding and customer touch."
"It's a perfect jump ball. Technology and conversion wise there is no difference between an ADSL implementation and a cable implementation - and probably wireless," he adds. "It comes down to who executes the best."