IN PERSPECTIVE: Fearless predictions 2009
By my tally, I went something like 5-5-4 last year, which is why you don’t want me on your planning committee. Nonetheless, I did get some stuff right, which is merely encouragement to try again.
So here’s 2009, guaranteed:
One big MSO will dial back on DOCSIS 3.0 deployment, while another will step up its commitment.
Home networking, as a service, will become a big issue. Nobody will actually do much in the way of offering home networking, as no service provider really wants to get calls from customers who are angry that they can’t get Wi-Fi access in their lead-lined bomb shelters, but with vendors trying to sell Wi-Fi 802.11n, DLNA, HDMI, HomePlug, MoCA, G.hn, Z-Wave, etc., etc., it’s going to be hard to avoid the subject.
Internecine squabbling among MSOs will result in Canoe Ventures getting less accomplished than hoped, and also in a noticeable but non-fatal delay in cable’s participation in the Clearwire WiMAX project. Any and all delays will be blamed on the recession.
Speaking of recession? ARPU is going down. The argument is that people will stay home instead of going out to the movies. Yes, some, but what most people will be doing is sneaking their own snacks into theatres instead of paying $17.99 for a quarter’s worth of popcorn and soda pop.
At least 17 of the 33 companies making QAMs will drop out of the market.
With Kevin Martin gone, Matthew Polka and Kyle McSlarrow might actually have to practice twiddling their thumbs every once in a while.
Cable Connections? The industry is going to realize that the idea needs tweaking as attendees try to squeeze eight events’ worth of carousing into a single week. Twice.
Nobody will buy Qwest again.
Yanks over the Padres in 6.